Somalia’s persistent instability is rooted in the interaction between political fragmentation, weak state institutions and insecurity. Although Al-Shabaab remains the country’s principal security threat, the insurgency cannot be addressed independently of the political challenges confronting the Somali state.[1] Since the establishment of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) in 2012, disagreements over the distribution of constitutional authority, electoral arrangements, fiscal resources and security responsibilities have continued to strain relations between the Federal Government and Federal Member States (FMS).[2]
These tensions have become particularly acute in 2026. Somalia completed the review of its Provisional Constitution in March 2026, but the process did not produce political consensus. Constitutional amendments extended the terms of the Federal Parliament and Presidency from four to five years and altered the electoral timetable.[3] Opposition groups and several FMS have challenged the process, arguing that the changes were adopted without sufficient political agreement. The dispute has consequently transformed constitutional and electoral reform into a broader contest over political authority and the future of Somalia’s federal system.
