Background:
The prospect of a developing Super El Niño has emerged as one of the most significant climate risks facing the world in 2026 and beyond. Meteorological agencies including the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and several international forecasting centres have indicated a high probability of El Niño conditions developing during 2026, with a substantial likelihood of intensifying into a strong or very strong event by late 2026 or early 2027.[1]
For Pakistan, a country already ranked among the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations, the emergence of a Super El Niño represents far more than a meteorological event. It poses a multidimensional challenge affecting water security, agriculture, food systems, public health, energy generation, infrastructure, disaster management, and economic stability. The country’s recent experiences with catastrophic floods, prolonged droughts, glacial melt, urban heatwaves, and erratic monsoon behaviour demonstrate how climate variability can quickly evolve into a national development and security challenge.[2]
