Issue Brief on “Pakistan’s Federal Budget FY2026–27: Growth Ambitions, Fiscal Discipline, and Strategic Trade-offs”

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Overview:

Pakistan’s Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb presented the Federal Budget for fiscal Year (FY) 2026–27 on June 12, 20226 with a total outlay of Rs. 18.77 trillion.[1] President Asif Ali Zardari gave his assent to the Finance Bill for the next fiscal year on June 26, 20226.[2] The budget marks a transition from crisis management towards economic recovery after several years of stabilisation under IMF-supported reforms. The budget reflects an attempt to balance competing priorities. On one hand, policymakers seek to maintain fiscal discipline and reassure international lenders. On the other, they must revive growth, create jobs, strengthen social protection, and address mounting climate and water security challenges.

The government has set ambitious targets of 4% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, inflation between 7.5–8.2%, a fiscal deficit of 3.6% of GDP, and a primary surplus of 2%. The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has been assigned a tax collection target of approximately Rs. 15.3 trillion, while defence expenditure has increased to nearly Rs. 3 trillion.[3]

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