Issue Brief on “To balance or not? Maldives Tough Choice Between India and China”

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Introduction

As global focus shifts from continental to maritime dominance, reflected in the evolution from Mackinder’s Heartland Theory to Spykman’s Rimland Theory, small island nations have started gaining strategic importance.[1] Maldives, located in the heart of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), has emerged as a key maritime chokepoint along critical energy and trade routes linking the Middle East to Asia. This strategic centrality has placed the Maldives at the center of a geopolitical tug-of-war between India and China, raising questions about its foreign policy orientation, sovereignty, and security future. This issue brief analyzes how the Maldives has been recalibrating its foreign policy amid intensifying China–India rivalry.

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